Whether we use
computers, hand held calculators, or backs of envelopes one rule applies: the
decision will be made by some person, or group of persons, and will not hinge
simply on the best numerical projection of some measure of merit. Like nearly all else in our business, there is
art as well as science in this. Indeed—and roughly speaking—the more important
the decision the greater is the reliance upon art.
That is what makes ship design/naval architecture so fascinating. Faced with
an uncertain future and several finely balanced options, it is possible that
the shipowner may take his lead from the marketplace—when 45,000 dwt products
tankers are in fashion he will order them, or when Panamax bulk carriers are in
fashion he may order these in preference to the ‘handy-size’. Ship ordering statistics suggest
that this is the case. The ‘acid test’ comes during depressions when a
shipowner’s survival depends upon maintaining a stronger cashflow than his
competitors, and for companies in the liner or specialized bulk market this cannot
easily be assessed on a ship-by-ship basis. Ideally each ship should be seen as
part of the company’s investment portfolio and the cashflow tested on a company
basis.
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