It is a standard practice to estimate the (1) capital
expenditures (CAPEX), life cycle operating expenditures (OPEX), (2) cashflow
based on recoverable reserves, production profile and the projected market
price of barrel of oil equivalent (boe), and (3) the net return on investment.
However, a very important parameter affecting not only the cost but potential
damage to the environment is the “risk” factor. This parameter is especially important
if the innovative concepts utilise less-than-mature technologies. Thus, it is necessary
to assess the life cycle risk costs associated with the reliability
characteristics of each concept structure component.
The risk costs include those due to inherent or
natural causes (e.g. hurricane) and those due to external causes (e.g.
operations and maintenance). The combined life cycle risk costs are intended to
provide insight into the reliability characteristics of each system component.
Four key considerations in determining the life cycle reliability characteristics
are safety, durability, serviceability and practicality. These considerations
can be defined as: safety: the requirement to prevent failure from natural
hazard is met; durability: the overall requirement for maintenance is met; serviceability:
the requirements for drilling and production are met; practicality: the
requirements for schedule and expenditures are met. Reliability can be defined
as the likelihood or probability that the system components have the ability to
meet the four considerations applicable to each system.
Comments